Sunday, June 04, 2017

Confirmation Bias

Words and phrases fly around the Kadizzle household like dust.  The concept under current discussion is confirmation bias. What in the hell is that? You want to believe something, so you look for evidence that what you believe is true.  You want to believe Trump is great.  So you look for evidence he is. Fox News will give you just the evidence you want.  The way it works is you listen to Rush, KFYR, and read what supports your ideas.  You do not read the NYT, or watch MSNBC.

How does this work in the real world?  What if you were a judge?  What if you sort of thought the guy was guilty?  You might tend to favor the evidence that pointed toward his guilt.  So what do you do? First you recognize that you mind can play tricks on you.  You mind can say " Ah, ha, I told you so". This can get you in a lot of trouble.  Dogs can sense what you think.  If you think a dog is mean it will be afraid of you because you are afraid of it.  If you think a dog is nice, you will relax, the dog will relax and you can pet the dog.

One must be aware that one approaches every situation with a bias.  When you go to the doctor and the doctor shows you a needle, you think this will hurt.  Sometimes shots don't hurt at all.  What is the best way to approach a person or a situation.  Put your brain in neutral.  Don't imagine the person will be mean, kind, helpful or anything else.  Let the future unfold.  Watch yourself, and judge yourself. Get a mirror and look at yourself.  Are you guilty of confirmation bias.  Are you misjudging situations because of a bias?

The most common form of confirmation bias is racial.  People think gypsies steal.  So they think if something got stolen it was a gypsy.  The problem is confirmation bias will quickly get you going the wrong way.  If a dog is barking and it is driving you nuts you might get up mad and run to the neighbor who has the dog that barks all the time.  You pull in his driveway and honk your horn at 3 A.M.   Your horn wakes up everyone.  It turns the neighbor is not home.  He left on vacation and took his dog.  Your preconceived notion led you to the wrong conclusion.  Now all the neighbors are mad at you.

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